September 2021 In numbers: ARBITRUM take -off, excitement around Dydx and the second wind of Lightning Network thanks to Salvador
Despite the negative September, in the third quarter the first cryptocurrency increased by 25%. Ahead of the historically positive end of the year.
- Ethereum closely correlated with bitcoin in September.
- Starting a month with $ 3430, the rate first updated the local maximum above $ 4000, and then adjusted to $ 2650.
- According to the results of the month, the price of the broadcast decreased by 12.5%. The quarter for Ethereum closed 36%.
- The best dynamics in September demonstrated decentralized exchanges, smart contract platforms and scaling solutions.
- Among projects with moderately high capitalization, the IDEX exchange token stood out and an asset of listing on the Binance of the Gala Game project. Avalanche updated the historical maximum and approached the top 10.
- Among the worst projects with moderate capitalization were the Native Token Exchange Huobi (HT), as well as the Smooth Love Potion (SLP) Token Blockchain Igra Axie Infinity.
Shares of companies associated with cryptocurrencies
Microstrategy (MSTR): -17.3%
Coinbase (Coin): -12.6%
Galaxy Digital (GLXY): -2.6%
Dynamics of securities of mining companies
Canaan (Can): -35.5%
Ebang International (EBON): -24.9%
Riot Blockchain (Riot): -31.3%
HUT 8 (HUT): +4.8%
Marathon Digital (Mara): -23%
Promotions associated with cryptocurrencies and mining companies in September demonstrated negative dynamics due to close correlation with bitcoin. The exception of steel securities HUT 8.
- According to the results of the meeting on September 22, the Fed’s members presented new estimates of the main macroeconomic parameters.
- The median forecast for federal funds at the end of 2023 amounted to 1%, according to the results of 2024 – Only 1.8%;
- Voices for and against the first increase in 2022 were divided equally.
- Previous estimates in June suggested the first increase in the key rate in 2023.
- The futures market lays more than 75% of the probability of the first increase in the Fed’s rate in December 2022. Investors give a chance to one by three, that by this time the Federal Reserve will increase it twice.
- Before the meeting, the probability of the first increase was estimated at 55%.
- Growth in energy prices due to problems with deliveries strengthened inflation expectations and led to a jump in the profitability of long-term government bonds of the United States.
- The head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, announced the achievement of conditions for the beginnings of emergency stimulation. The market consensus forecast involves the completion of a quantitative softening program of $ 120 billion per month during November 2021-June 2022.
- The start of the Fed’s return to normal monetary conditions is able to cause stress in financial markets. Cryptocurrencies may also be under pressure if their behavior will correspond to the dynamics of risk assets, as was observed in March 2020.
Market moods, correlations and volatility
- Unlike August, in September, bear mood prevailed – the dynamics of the index of fear and greed evidered this. At the beginning of the month, the indicator suddenly decreased to 30, after which it was somewhat recovered. However, he soon resumed the movement into the “fear” zone, testifying to the growing pessimism of investors. September 30, it reached the value of 20. The average index in September is 45.3 (in August the value was 68.4), the minimum is 20, the most common – 27.
- The movement of bitcoin and gold remains multidirectional, however, the negative statistical interconnection of two assets decreases the second month to the row (-0.1 versus -0.21 in August).
- In September, the first cryptocurrency equally correlated with indexes S&P 500 and Dow Jones (0.17).
- Such a relationship with traditional indices indicates the dependence of bitcoin on the state of the stock market.
In September, the coefficient of historical volatility of Bitcoin kept in the range from 3.26% to 3.96% – at the end of the month the indicator began to grow. The amplitude of fluctuations in the price of the first cryptocurrency is much lower than during a bull rally.
- The number of addresses that contain more than 1000 BTC continues to decrease after the peak value reached on February 6 at the mark 2486.
- After the local minimum (2116) recorded on September 13, the indicator began to recover. It is possible that large players took advantage of the correction caused by news from China.
- The current value of the indicator (2171) below the February maximum by 12.6%.
- Bitcoin’s proposal on centralized exchanges fell to the marks of August 2018.
- Over the past few months, the BTC outflow from the castedial platforms has significantly accelerated-from July 26, the indicator decreased by 174,000 BTC (-6.6%). Glassnode co-founder Raphael Schulce-craft, after reaching the price of bitcoin peak near $ 65,000, almost 2 million BTC flowed from short-term investors to Hodler.
- Against the backdrop of a general market deterioration in moods and a decline in activity in the Defi segment, the volume of transactions on the Binance Smart Chain (BSC) network continues to remain at relatively low levels, lagging behind the Polygon indicator.
- Relatively reached on July 29, the volume of BSC transactions, the volume of BSC transactions decreased by 52%.
- The trend for reducing Ethereum balance on centralized exchanges (CEX) continues. For September, the broadcast of the air on CEX decreased by 0.28%, and from the beginning of the year – by 6.64%.
- Against this background, the share of ETH, involved in the smart contracts of decentralized applications, is growing. Since the beginning of the year, the indicator has grown from 16.25% to 27.67%. This suggests that more and more users prefer Dapps to centralized exchanges, which are exposed to regulatory risks.
- Since the activation of the EIP-1559 in August, the Ethereum network has burned more than 408 840 ETH (~ $ 1.27 billion)-of which over 249,000 ETH in September (~ $ 775 million).
- The daily number of burned coins correlates with the price. For example, on September 3, when the price of Ethereum rushed to $ 4000, the daily emission of the asset for the first time took a negative value.
- The number of coins at the deposit contract Ethereum 2.0 is growing stably. This indicates the confidence of users in the prospects of a radically new system based on Proof-OF-STAKE and using a cartoon.
- Having reached the local bottom at the end of July, the number of addresses with a balance of ≥ 32 ETH is increasing for the second month in a row. September 30, the indicator exceeded the mark of 108 550.
- In September, the capacity of the Lightning Network (LN) bitcoin network increased by 25%: from 2352 BTC to 2959 BTC. In August, the indicator increased by 14%.
- Against the backdrop of the recognition of the first cryptocurrency by the official payment remedy of Salvador and the integration of LN with Twitter, the number of NODs and channels for a month increased by 3.4% and 5.8%, respectively.
Mining, hashrate, commissions
- Heshchrate Bitcoin continues a confident recovery – since the beginning of September, the indicator has grown by 7.7%.
- The ascending trend remains, despite the tightening of the position of the PRC authorities in relation to cryptocurrencies, due to which the crypto platform introduced restrictions on working with clients from China. The most likely reason for the growth of the hash: the development of mining in more friendly jurisdictions, including the USA and Kazakhstan.
- Antpool is still leading among the largest pools. Significantly strengthened the position of F2Pool – its share increased in a month from 9.7% to 15.64%.
- In September, the Ethereum hashReite updated the historical maximum, despite the price correction and deterioration. Against the background of the closure of some pools, as well as restrictions for Chinese F2Pool users, the indicator at the end of the month was declining.
- The average commission for the ETH transaction again jumped to May marks. For most of September, the indicator was above $ 20, while Bitcoin was in the region of $ 2- 3. It is obvious that, despite the growth of the popularity of L2-technologies like arbitrum, it is still far from solving the problem of scaling Ethereum.
- In September, the income of Ethereum Mainers reached a record $ 2.42 billion (+28%), slightly exceeding the May figure. Arrives from the commissions amounted to $ 1.07 billion, and their share in the monthly income exceeded 40%.
- The total income of the Bitcoin Mainers decreased by 3.8%-from $ 1.36 billion to $ 1.3 billion.
The volume of trading
- In September, the volume of bidding on leading spinal platforms reached $ 1.48 trillion – the third largest mark in 2021.
- FTX amounted to a record $ 87 billion.
- Binance ($ 828 billion) remains the constant leader. OKEX and Huobi were $ 181 billion and $ 168 billion, respectively.
Futures and options
- The volume of bitcoin in September bidding reached $ 1.6 trillion-it was less only in July this year.
- In the most saturated session on September 7, the volume of trade in futures reached $ 130 billion, and $ 73 billion contracts based on Ethereum. Then the course of the first cryptocurrency decreased by $ 10,000 during the day, to $ 42,900.
- In the same trade session, open interest in bitcoin contracts decreased by $ 4 billion – to $ 15 billion.
Similar trade activity was observed in the options market. Under Bitcoin -based contracts, the volume of trading amounted to $ 1.4 billion, and Ethereum – $ 616 million.
- Compared to the last month in September, the volume of blocked funds (TVL) in the Defi sector increased slightly. However, if we consider the 30-day range, the indicator decreased by almost 3%.
- The Curve Finance project took a leading position on TVL – the indicator amounted to $ 14.14 billion. Its closest competitor has a AAVE landing protocol – $ 13.55 billion.
- Prices of almost all TOP-20 tokens per month have significantly decreased. Exception – Ren, rise in price by 5.88%. Maker suffered stronger than others – in 30 days its price fell by more than 38%.
- Pancakeswap overtook AAVE by market capitalization. The indicator of the permanent leader of the rating – Uniswap – exceeded $ 14.83 billion. For comparison: in August, the capitalization of UNI tokens was at $ 18.62 billion.
- Despite the month that is not the most successful for the first cryptocurrency, the total cost of “bitcoins on the air” increased by 4.6%, to $ 13.05 billion.
- The leader of the segment remains WBTC with an indicator of $ 9.82 billion (more than 75% of the total).
- Ethereum ecosystem continues to dominate the Defi segment. In a month, EE has increased by almost $ 10 billion. More than $ 120 billion was blocked in applications and wrapped assets on the basis of this blockchain – over 70% of the total TVL.
- Against the background of the launch of the Avalanche Foundation of the Development Fund of Defi projects and the organization of private tokensil of $ 230 million, the total TVL projects on the same blockchain increased by 76%, to $ 3.84 billion.
- SOLANA increased by 185%. In early September, cryptocurrency went around the capitalization of Dogecoin and Polkadot. The ecosystem is successful by the rapid development of the NFT direction and the popularity of Defi services.
- In the segment of the solutions of the second -level scaling (L2), Arbitrum leads. The project of the project amounted to $ 1.42 billion, which is much more than Dydx, Optimism and other competitors. The protocol takes 60% of the market.
- In September, decentralized exchanges recorded a trading volume of $ 76 billion.
- Uniswap ($ 51.6 billion), Sushiswap ($ 11 billion) and Curve ($ 4 billion) remain unchanged leaders of the spot market.
- At the same time, the Dydx exchange is gaining rapid popularity in the derivatives market, using the second -level protocol based on Ethereum. On September 27 and 28, the daily trading volumes on this site exceeded the total indicator of all decentralized platforms, as well as the revolutions of some leading centralized exchanges like Coinbase – about $ 9 billion.
- Open interest (the total volume of open positions on the exchange) exceeded at the end of the month a mark of $ 500 million.
- Activity on the platform is associated with the previously announced eirrop Dydx token among early users (7.5% of the emission). At the same time, the project launched liquidity mining with the incentive system in Dydx tokens for trade turnover.
- In September, Dydx quotes reached a peak at $ 27.8. Token Ethereum’s switch was in the listing of many popular exchanges, including Binance, Huobi and OKEX.
- Interest in the project, as well as in decentralized exchanges, added new repressions of China. Refusal to register new Chinese users with Huobi, Binance, Gate, a positively affected the popularity of decentralized protocols, including Dydx.
- In September, the total capitalization of stablecoins exceeded $ 120 billion.
- In the context of projects, the unchanged leader remains USDT from Tether, the total cost of the coins of which is $ 65 billion.
- The CENTRE Consorter, which produces USDC, resumed the emission of stabilcoin, the capitalization of which for the first time exceeded $ 30 billion.
- In September, the speeds of many NFT projects, including Axie Infinity (-57%), Artblocks (-57%) and Cryptopunks (-66%) decreased.
- The Gamefi segment tokens followed the trend and adjusted throughout the month. Despite the fact that AXS (Native Axie Infinity token) increased by 5%, the vast majority of others recorded losses of tens of percent.
- The total trend was practically not reflected in the trading volume of the leading NFT market for Opensea. The total indicator for September approached $ 3 billion.
- In September, the FTX cryptocurrency exchange launched its own marketplace. Among other significant events, we can note the sale of the famous Bored Ape Yacht Club collection for Sotheby’s for $ 24 million with the expected range of $ 14 million – $ 16 million, an auction of tokenized art of the Binance Marketplais from the Hermitage, as well as the opened NFT collection of Snoop Dogg in the total more Mill.
The activity of large players
- Open interest in bitcoin shops on CME continued the descending trend. The total number of traders gradually decreases.
- As before, large players of the Non-Commercial category are dominated by short positions, and in small ones (nonreportable)-long. It is noteworthy that the number of Longs of the institutional (Commercial) surpassed the number of their shorts.
- In more accessible to investors, microfites for bitcoin picture are slightly different – open interest is gradually growing, as well as the total number of traders.
- However, all categories of market participants are significantly predominated by short positions, which indicates bear mood.
- According to Ethereumfidies, the situation is more positive, open interest is growing confidently.
- Although Non-Commercial is dominated by short positions, Nonreportable and Commercial are dominated.
Large venture rounds
$ 680 million
NFT Platform of Fantasy-Futball Sorare. The company was estimated at $ 4.3 billion.
$ 431 million
American mining company Genesis Digital Assets.
$ 250 million
Dapper Labs, standing behind the NBA Top Shot NBA MarketPlase and Flow blockchain.
$ 200 million
The deso social network from the creator of BitCloud and Stablecoin Basis.
$ 155 million
$ 130 million
Open Open Banking Startup Truelyayer.
Key events in the field of regulation
- The Central Bank of the Russian Federation recommended blocking cards and accounts for transactions with bitcoin exchanges and opposed the access of unskilled investors to bitcoin.
- The US Treasury Department imposed sanctions against the Suex Bitcoin Exchange with offices in Moscow and St. Petersburg.
- The government confirmed plans to launch a digital ruble until 2030.
- In Ukraine, they adopted a law on virtual assets and proposed a tax rate on profit from operations with cryptocurrencies. A detailed analysis of the document.
- Legislators explained the status of mining in the country.
- Zelensky emphasized the importance of launching the legal market of virtual assets for Ukraine.
- The US Department of Finance called the priority development of the leadership for cryptocurrency taxation.
- Fed’s chairman Jerome Powell said that the United States does not intend to ban cryptocurrencies following the example of China.
- Congress upheld the amendments to tax loopholes in the reporting of cryptotrazazations in the second infrastructure plan for $ 3.5 trillion.
- Texas introduced digital assets in the legal field.
- The defense budget bill included the provision on cryptocurrencies.
China He collapsed the Bitcoin course, announcing the fight against cryptototrading and suppression of mining. FTX postponed the headquarters from Hong Kong to Bagam.
Regulator Singapore warned investors about the absence of a license from Binance – the exchange will limit operations for local users from October 26.
Significant events of September
Twitter applications on devices running iOS have the opportunity to take donates via the Lightning Network network. To work, you need to connect a third -party service like cashapp to the profile.
The head of Chanpeng Zhao said that the idea of a decentralized organization of the global business prevents the approval of regulators in jurisdictions with clear licensing modes. The company will refuse such a management model.
The American division of Binance US will hold an IPO in the next three years.
Bitcoin developers presented a new version for NOD bitcoin 22.0. It implemented support for the upcoming major update of Taproot, planned for November 2021.
On September 14, a technical failure occurred in the beta version of the main SOLANA network-the blockchain stopped releasing new blocks. After more than 16 hours, the validators successfully completed the restart of the beta version of the main network after updating according to GCD to version 1.6.25. The incident did not make a special influence on the SOL course.
Later, the developers said that DOS-Atak was the reason for the failure.
Quotes of the month
“Now is a completely different time. Do not compare the situation with the bubble. In 2017, the bubble pouted and burst, but for three years people built an industry “.Anatoly YakovenkoFounder of SOLANA
“In the coming years, many states will begin to use cryptocurrency as part of their monetary policy, either as a component of the reserves of the central banks, or for calculations with monetary regulators of other countries, or simply, like Salvador, will make it a national currency”.Charles HoskinsonCardano co -founder
“I think, in the end, if bitcoin really succeeds, the regulators will kill him or try. And I think they will do it, because there are opportunities “.Ray DalioFounder Bridgewater Associates
“Stable coins work like a poker poker in a casino in the Wild West”.Gary GenslerChairman SEC